Most of Kyiv's allies generally limited themselves to statements of concern and noted that they were monitoring events as they were unfolding. This will probably be noted by Ukraine and its western partners. And both they, Kazakhstan, and other Russian neighbours in central Asia, will have deepening reservations about how reliable a partner Putin can be going forward. Turkey and China will have viewed the turmoil in their nuclear-armed neighbour with some concern. The Kremlin also dispatched Russia's deputy foreign minister, Andrey Rudenko, to Beijing for talks with China's foreign minister, Qin Gang, to “exchange views … on China-Russia relations and international and regional issues of common concern”. Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was apparently among the first foreign leaders to speak with Putin after his televised address on Saturday morning. The exposure of these weaknesses must also be worrying for Russia's few remaining allies. It also raises questions about how ordinary people might feel about a change in regime in which the choice is between Putin and Prigozhin. This lack of resistance to Prigozhin and the apparent popular support Wagner received in Rostov-on-Don also speaks volumes about the lack of enthusiasm for the war in Ukraine among regional elites and people outside the Kremlin bubble. It says something about the limitations of Russia's capacity to respond to the crisis and deploy military and security resources beyond the war in Ukraine. Moreover, the fact that Putin had to cut a deal in the first place and after Prigozhin's mercenaries advanced so close to Moscow without facing any resistance on the ground is significant. This does not project an image of a strong leader either at home or abroad. And Gerasimov by Sergey Surovikin, one of his current deputies, who was briefly in charge of the war in Ukraine during the autumn and winter of 2002-23. Shoigu by Aleksey Dyumin, who led the operation that resulted in the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and currently serves a regional governor of Tula. What's more, Putin stood by his defence minister, Sergey Shoigu, and chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, throughout their rivalry with Prigozhin.īut there are now indications that both of them may be replaced. Within 12 hours, he had made a deal which, for now, will not see Prigozhin or any of his mercenaries punished. The Russian president's speech on Saturday morning was fiercely combative, vowing to crush what he called an “armed uprising”. More immediately, Putin has other problems to consider and take care of. That should deeply worry Putin and his inner circle. As Lenin put it succinctly in his 1920 book Left-Wing Communism, an Infantile Disorder, without the “dress rehearsal” of 1905, the victory of the October Revolution in 1917 “would have been impossible”. It may have failed, but there will be lessons even in that for any future challenger to the Kremlin. The airstrike itself – if indeed it happened – is an indication that the Kremlin was aware that something was afoot.īut the speed and precision with which Prigozhin moved his troops over large distances and to strategic locations – including Rostov-on-Don – indicates that this was a well-prepared operation. The alleged trigger for Prigozhin's mutiny was an apparent airstrike on his camp at the front in Ukraine by Russian forces. And then, as now, the challenger confronted an increasingly fragile regime plagued by deep structural problems and uncertainty that any war brings. If there is a parallel, however, it is that foreign wars were part of the background against which both the Bolshevik revolution and Prigozhin's attempted power play occurred. Instead, it was ultimately a showdown between competing factions of the Russian military-industrial complex. But this was a far cry from the mass uprising of the 1917 October revolution. He attempted to make good on this promise four weeks later. But it escalated as the battle over Bakhmut intensified, during which Prigozhin complained more than 20,000 of his men had been killed.īack in May, Prigozhin warned of another Russian revolution. The conflict between Prigozhin and the top brass of the Russian military has been going on for some time. But this brief episode of turmoil will have lasting repercussions for Russia and for the war in Ukraine.Īlso Read | Countries With Most Nuclear Weapons List 2023: Russia, US and China Top 3 Nations With Highest Number of Nuclear Weapons, Know How Many Nuclear Warheads India and Pakistan Have. The crisis was apparently averted thanks to a deal brokered by Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, and confirmed by the Kremlin.
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